What Will Solar Cycle 25 Look Like?

 What Will Solar Cycle 25 Look Like?

The Sun is awakening from its recent quiet phase, signaling the beginning of a new solar cycle. As sunspots and solar flares begin to emerge on the Sun’s surface, scientists are keen to understand what Solar Cycle 25 will look like. The short answer? It is likely to resemble the last solar cycle, following the 11-year pattern of solar activity. However, the longer story involves extensive research, sophisticated solar models, and expert panels dedicated to unraveling the mysteries of our closest star.

The Sun’s Cyclical Nature

NASA scientists have long observed the Sun’s behavior, noting that it oscillates between periods of high and low activity in roughly 11-year cycles. These cycles dictate changes in the Sun’s magnetic field, which flips at the peak of each cycle. When the Sun is in a quiet phase—solar minimum—activity is low, with fewer sunspots and flares. Conversely, at solar maximum, solar storms and eruptions intensify, potentially affecting space weather, satellite operations, and even power grids on Earth.

Solar cycle predictions help anticipate space weather impacts. Outbursts from the Sun can cause disruptions to satellite communications, power grids, and even pose radiation risks to astronauts. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center serves as the official authority in monitoring and forecasting these events, providing critical warnings and alerts.

The Challenges of Predicting Solar Cycles

Despite decades of observation, predicting the Sun’s behavior remains a significant challenge. Scientists use a variety of models to understand the Sun’s internal dynamics, yet many aspects of solar activity remain unpredictable. Lika Guhathakurta, a program scientist at NASA’s Heliophysics Division, acknowledges the complexity: "We’re working against how variable the Sun is, and the complexity of what happens inside the Sun."

Unlike weather forecasting, which benefits from surface-level observations, solar modeling involves assumptions about the Sun’s interior, where the processes driving magnetic field reversals are not yet fully understood. To address this, researchers employ multiple modeling techniques, drawing from centuries of ground-based observations and decades of satellite data. Some models incorporate machine learning to refine predictions based on historical patterns.

The Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel

Every decade, a panel of experts convenes to evaluate solar cycle forecasts. Co-sponsored by NASA and NOAA, the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel assesses multiple models before reaching a consensus. The latest meeting in March 2019 involved 12 experts analyzing 60 different models to predict the strength and timing of Solar Cycle 25.

One model, the polar magnetic field model, has proven particularly reliable. This model examines the Sun’s north and south pole magnetic fields to forecast the intensity of the upcoming cycle. If the magnetic field is strong during solar minimum, a stronger cycle is expected; if weak, the next cycle will likely be subdued.

Using this approach, the panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 will resemble the weak Solar Cycle 24, which peaked at 114 sunspots (compared to an average of 179). The current cycle is expected to reach its peak in July 2025, with an estimated 115 sunspots.

Understanding Solar Activity Through New Methods

Researchers have explored innovative methods for mapping solar cycles. One study introduced a "solar clock," which arranges the last 18 solar cycles into a circular pattern. This model suggests that each 11-year cycle can be represented over a 12-hour format, with distinct periods of high and low activity. According to this clock, the Sun is currently around the "3 o’clock" mark—indicating an increase in activity.

Robert Leamon, a solar scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, explains: "The most active Sun happens between 5:30 and 10:00, when there’s a sharp drop-off in activity as the Sun moves toward minimum. Knowing where we are on the solar clock helps refine our predictions."

Will There Be a Grand Solar Minimum?

A recurring question in solar studies is whether the Sun is heading toward a prolonged period of inactivity known as a "grand solar minimum." The last such event, the Maunder Minimum, coincided with the Little Ice Age between the 13th and 19th centuries. However, experts argue that even if another grand minimum occurred, it would not offset the effects of human-driven climate change. Greenhouse gases exert a much greater influence on Earth’s climate than fluctuations in solar activity.

Lisa Upton, co-chair of the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, reassures that there is no indication of an imminent grand solar minimum. However, scientists continue to monitor the Sun closely, as its behavior has long-term implications for space exploration and Earth’s technological infrastructure.

Looking Ahead: The Future of Solar Forecasting

As technology advances, scientists aim to develop real-time solar forecasts akin to daily weather predictions. However, many unanswered questions remain regarding the Sun’s internal mechanisms and the factors driving solar cycles.

“One of the things that’s exciting about being a solar physicist is that we’re at the forefront of discovery—there are still so many questions left to answer,” says Upton. “There are still a lot of rocks to unturn.”

Solar Cycle 25 will continue to unfold over the coming years, providing researchers with valuable data to refine their models. It will take another five to six years before scientists can fully assess the accuracy of their predictions, but one thing is certain—the Sun will continue to surprise us.