As of early November 2024, AtlasIntel's polling data indicates a highly competitive race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election. A national poll conducted from October 30 to 31, surveying 3,490 likely voters, shows Trump leading Harris by 1.9 percentage points, with 49.1% support for Trump and 47.2% for Harris.
In key swing states, AtlasIntel's findings are as follows:
- Arizona: Trump leads with 52.3% to Harris's 45.8%.
- Nevada: Trump holds 51.2% over Harris's 46%.
- North Carolina: Trump is ahead at 50.5% compared to Harris's 47.1%.
- Georgia: Trump leads with 50.1% to Harris's 47.6%.
- Michigan: Trump has 49.7% over Harris's 48.2%.
- Pennsylvania: Trump leads with 49.6% to Harris's 47.8%.
- Wisconsin: Trump holds a narrow lead at 49.7% compared to Harris's 48.6%.
These figures suggest Trump is leading in all seven critical swing states, with some margins within the poll's two-point error margin.
It's important to note that polling data can vary, and other polls have shown different results. For instance, a recent NPR/PBS News/Marist College survey indicates Harris leading nationally by four points, 51% to 47%.
Given these discrepancies, the election outcome remains uncertain, and the final result will depend on voter turnout and decisions in the remaining days leading up to Election Day.
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